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Ce impact economic va avea conflictul ruso-georgian – trei întrebări, Matei PĂUN răspunde

de (17-8-2008)
Tranzitul petrolului prin conducta georgiană a fost opritTranzitul petrolului prin conducta georgiană a fost oprit

1. Care este importanța economică a Georgiei?

Georgia’s general economic importance is negligible, comparatively
speaking. It becomes important when looking at it as a strategic
transport corridor for Caspian oil and gas. Two pipelines – linking
Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea to Georgia and Turkey run across its
territory, bypassing Russia. But even from this perspective, the total
amount of oil and gas flowing through these pipelines is small compared
to the global output of oil and gas. As a matter of fact, both
pipelines have been closed for several days with no noticeable effect on
either supply or price.

2. Ce efecte economice globale ar putea avea conflictul ruso-georgian?

At a regional level, risk perception has gone up, which will make
further investments in the region more expensive and slow to come. At a
global level, Georgia will strain ties between the US and Russia which
is not a positive contribution to the world economy. It is quite likely
that the Georgian crisis will escalate in other conflict areas, and
that, for example, Russia’s adherence to the WTO will be greatly delayed
(bad for everyone, including Russia). On the other hand, renewed
Russian assertiveness in the region may slow down American assertiveness
vis a vis Iran.

3. În ce mod ar putea fi afectată economic România de recentele evenimente din Georgia?

Romania will hardly be affected by this crisis. At worse, Rompetrol’s
supply of oil will be imperiled (as a matter of fact, Kazmunaigas – the
majority owner – has stopped transiting oil via Georgia), but that only
means they may have to buy it from different sources at higher prices.
Romania has not taken much advantage from developing trade ties with
Russia so it will have little to lose. Nabucco, on the other hand, is
effectively a dead project. But since it is only a project, Romania’s
position will not be worse than it is now.

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  • Stefan Caliga: (17-8-2008 la 00:00)

    Ramane de vazut daca Romania nu va suferi in urma crizei existente. Oricum, creserea periodica a preturilor a devenit o constanta, iar criza in sine va fi un bun prilej pentru potentatii autohtoni in domeniu sa impuna noi preturi.

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Citește articolul precedent:
History’s Back – Ambitious autocracies, hesitant democracies, de Robert KAGAN

One wonders whether Russia's invasion of Georgia will finally end the dreamy complacency that took hold of the world's democracies...